The Effects of the 2006 Russian Alcohol Policy on Alcohol-Related Mortality: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

1. William Alex Pridemore, 
2. Mitchell B. Chamlin, 
3. Maria T. Kaylen, 
4. Evgeny Andreev

Alcoholism: Clinical and Experiemtanl Research

Article first published online: 16 AUG 2013

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acer.12256/abstract

Background

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of a set of 2006 Russian alcohol policies on alcohol-related mortality in the country.

Methods

We used autoregressive integrated moving average interrupted time series techniques to model the impact of the policy on the number of sex-specific monthly deaths of those aged 15+ years due to alcohol poisoning, alcoholic cardiomyopathy, alcoholic liver cirrhosis, and alcohol-related mental and behavioral disorders. The time series began in January 2000 and ended in December 2010. The alcohol policy was implemented in January 2006.

Results

The alcohol policy resulted in a significant gradual and sustained decline in male deaths due to alcohol poisoning (ω_o = −92.631,p < 0.008, δ₁ = 0.883, p < 0.001) and in significant immediate and sustained declines in male (ω₀ = −63.20, p < 0.05) and female (ω₀ = −64.28, p < 0.005) deaths due to alcoholic liver cirrhosis.

Conclusions

The 2006 suite of alcohol policies in Russia was responsible for an annual decline of about 6,700 male alcohol poisoning deaths and about 760 male and about 770 female alcoholic liver cirrhosis deaths. Without the alcohol policy, male alcohol poisoning deaths would have been 35% higher and male and female alcoholic liver cirrhosis deaths would have been 9 and 15% higher, respectively. We contextualize our findings in relation to declining mortality in Russia and to results from recent studies of the impact of this law on other causes of death.

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